RESEARCH: WEST NILE VIRUS IN ILLINOIS

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About the Crossover Dates
Project and Models

CHAMPAIGN-URBANA CROSSOVER MODEL
Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only — 2017

 

During 2017, the models were run weekly from May 10 until August 9 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 2, which includes a summarization of all of the model simulations.


MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results -

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/2/2017
Based on this model, there is:  
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 29, 2017
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 29, 2017
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 29, 2017
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 29, 2017
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 29, 2017
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 29, 2017
   

Model Run History for 2017 -

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results -

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/2/2017
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than August 9, 2017
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than August 9, 2017
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 9, 2017
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of August 9, 2017
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 9, 2017
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 9, 2017

Model Run History for 2017 -


Graph of Degree Day Model Data


These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data. The threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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